TIBBS 2007 Unit 1: Climate Change

From Community

Project 5. "Climate mitigation: can local actions by individuals, cities, and states effectively reduce global greenhouse emissions?"

Contents 1 Group members 2 Slides 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Big problem 2.3 Individual Action 2.4 Local Action 2.5 Case Study: New Dehli 2.6 Game theory 2.7 Simulation Demo 2.8 Doom 3 Initial outline 4 Resources 5 Meeting 6 Current version of PPT

[edit] Group members

Wenyun Zuo

Available: Wed. after class; Thu. afternoon; Fri. whole daytime

Amitabh Trehaan

Available:

Yuanpeng Li

Available: W,R: after dinner, F: all day

Erik Barry Erhardt

Available: M: 1300-1700, T: all day, W: 1300-1450, R: 900-1330, 1600-1800, F: all day

[edit] Slides

[edit] Introduction

Question: Can local actions by individuals, cities, and states effectively reduce global greenhouse emissions?

While greenhouse emissions originate locally, the effect is global.

In as much as the sum of the local emissions equals the global emissions, local action is a necessary condition for emission reduction.

We show how the Indian city of New Dehli effectively reduced local greenhouse emissions.

• Before industry revolution: CO2 sinks = CO2 sources (almost)
• Nowadays: CO2 sinks << CO2 sources

If we have any technical way to creat a big sink or reduce soures, we can deal with the issue. So technically, a powerful individual (can be a person, a group, a country) affording the technical way can affect global situation. However, practically, as Paul said "tragedy of commons", without a force or rule individual will choose the way to maximize its benefit.

[edit] Big problem

Greenhouse emission originates locally, but effect is global.

Methane example: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/AtmosphericMethane.png Computer models showing the amount of methane (parts per million by volume) at the surface (top) and in the stratosphere (bottom).

CO2 polluters poster: http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/maps/map2.pdf

CO2 emissions by capita (2002): http://www.vitalgraphics.net/graphic.cfm?filename=climate2/large/16.jpg

But can local reduction in emissions reduce global reduction?

[edit] Individual Action

Earth Day (April 22) -- (earth day image)

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/index.html

At Home: Change 5 lights = greenhouse gases equivalent to emissions from 10 million cars.

At the Office: Power management on computer and monitor, unplug laptop power cords when not in use.

On the Road: Leaving car at home two days a week reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 1,600 pounds per year.

At School: Create campus climate action plan http://www.cleanair-coolplanet.org/toolkit/ (such as Tufts, UNH, U Vermont, Middlebury, Harvard)

[edit] Local Action

USA State Action Plans for GHG Mitigation (as of July 2006) http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/stateandlocalgov/state_action.html

29 states and Puerto Rico.

(image of states) http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/actionplansmap.gif

By taking a proactive approach to planning greenhouse gas emissions reductions, states can

• lower their greenhouse gas emissions,
• reduce their energy costs,
• protect air quality and public health, and
• improve the economy and environment.

International Local Action:

International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) http://www.iclei.org/

ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability is an international association of local governments and national and regional local government organizations that have made a commitment to sustainable development.

ICLEI's growing membership is comprised of 654 cities, towns, counties and their associations, in 68 countries worldwide.

Ithaca, NY: http://www.ci.ithaca.ny.us/vertical/Sites/%7B5DCEB23D-5BF8-4AFF-806D-68E7C14DEB0D%7D/uploads/%7B3BFA0AD6-086E-4BCD-A8E2-53D85E251924%7D.PDF

(image of Local Action Plan cover page)

Delhi, India: (case study)

[edit] Case Study: New Dehli

http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=85665 http://www.2point6billion.com/2007/08/27/beijing-finally-learnt-from-new-delhi-the-cng-way/ http://www.springerlink.com/content/q16143m713r366m7/

Case study: Emission reductions in New Delhi (by CNG) : http://www.ekh.unep.org/?q=node/1737 (will gather more).

Wikipedia's Compressed natural gas page features a CNG powered high-floor Neoplan AN440A, operated by ABQ RIDE in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Started when ecologists file a case against government.

Background:

(include a map of area)

(shorten)

• Delhi 1970’s and 1980’s unprecedented growth in population (new births and migration), vehicles, and small scale industries
  • causing serious ecological imbalance and environmental degradation.
• The total area of NCT of Delhi is 1483 sq. Km with an urban segment of 685.34 sq. Km in the year 1991.
• Urban population grew at 51.53% from 1991-2001 as compared to 46.89% during 1981-1991.
• The density of the population also increased to 9294 persons per sq. Km (the highest in the country) in the year 2001 against 6352 persons per sq. Km in 1991 (Source : Economy Survey of Delhi, 2001).
• Ranked fourth among the 41 most polluted cities in the world, in the 90’s (air pollution).
• The period between 1989 – 1996 saw a rapid increase in pollution levels; 1996 is peak year.
• The transport, industrial and the domestic sectors were the major contributors towards the rising ambient air pollution levels, in addition to the presence of natural dust due to meteorological conditions.

Plan and agencies involved:

(image of key players at top of page) http://www.ekh.unep.org/modules/fckeditor/files/actors.JPG

Outcomes: (short story)

Index of pollution, before and after. Images (photograph) of before and after to see pollution and no pollution.

Outcomes/Impacts:

• The period between 1989-96 saw a rapid increase in pollution levels.
• The Year 1996 may be considered as the peak year.
• But in the wake of use of CNG as an alternate fuel, the contribution of vehicular sector towards air pollution has been reduced in the subsequent years.
• This is also supported by the fact that there is a significant improvement in the air quality.
• The best place to witness this change is the busy ITO traffic intersection, where toxic fumes no longer irritate the eyes as earlier.
• Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Lead and Sulphur Dioxide levels have all shown a declining trend.

• Sulphur Dixoide: 42 mg/m3 1996 down to 18 mg/m3 2002
• NO2: 75 mg/m3 1996 down to 59 mg/m3 2000

• Lead levels after introduction of unleaded petrol in 1998. Also, the results show a significant improvement in the overall air quality of the city.
• concentration of Carbon Monoxide has fallen by 32 per cent;
• Sulphur Dioxide levels have fallen by 39 per cent in 2002 as compared to 1997. The concentration of other pollutants like
• Lead and Benzene have also registered a marked decline.
• Despite the phenomenal growth in vehicular population, the levels of Nitrogen Dioxide have remained more or less constant, this can be attributed to the phasing out of old commercial vehicles and implementation of Euro-I and subsequently Euro-II norms for petrol and diesel driven private vehicles.

http://www.ekh.unep.org/modules/fckeditor/files/fig%209.JPG

All better now. happy happy happy p(^_^)q .

Lessons learned:

• Need to involve all stakeholders in planning
• Need to get prices and economic incentives right
• Need to balance fueling infrastructure with number of vehicles
• Capital costs of underused infrastructure may not be recoverable in the fuel price
• If fuel prices are right, vehicle owners will queue for natural gas fuel

[edit] Game theory

All actions must originate locally.

Strategy: Have local agents behave in a lower emission way.

What if some local agents do not cooperate? (no global treaty)

Perhaps if Americans think that pollution will kill them, they will be motivated to take action. Potentially, this can occur regardless of what neighbors are doing.

Tragedy of the Commons

Everyone behaves in their own best interest

A force or rule can correct

[edit] Simulation Demo

Wenyun describe model, either series of screen shots or a short film.

• Without Treaty
• With Treaty

[edit] Doom

Yes, we can make a change, but without rule, due to the tragedy of the commons, can a change be made?

sad sad sad (T_T)

[edit] Initial outline

1. Greenhouse emissions
   1. Who produces
      1. Really cool map -- Who turned up the heat. http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/maps/map2.pdf
      2. A global emission map website. http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/?2275 (Unfortunately no China and India)
      3. Emission of many contrise during 1995-2010. http://maps.grida.no/go/collection/CollectionID/13FF91C4-70EB-7C76-4F40-903AFA7FFEE5
      4. Contributing to emissions: Historically the developed countries of the world have emitted most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The U.S. emits most in total, and is one of the countries with highest emissions per capita. China is the second largest emitter, but has very low emissions per capita. Over the last 20 years, industrial development has led to a rapid rise in the volume of emissions from Asia, but on a per capita basis, emissions in this region are still at the bottom of the global scale. http://www.vitalgraphics.net/climate2.cfm?pageID=8
   2. How much
      1. To calculate your contribution of CO2. http://www.climatecare.org/about/offsets-made-simple/
   3. of What
   4. and how emissions move around globe.
2. How to reduce?
   1. Individuals
   2. City/State
   3. Countries
      1. Emission Standard for big countries. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_standard#Low_Carbon_Fuel_Standard
3. Given strategy for reduction, such as one proposed for City/State or Countries,
   1. can it work?
   2. without a global treaty?

[edit] Resources

A resource regarding mitigation is what Felisa is suggesting (http://www.ipcc-wg3.org/): Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change. The ipcc-wg3 website is not coming up this morning. Here's a page that has other links to WGIII on right middle column http://www.ipcc.ch/, but still the first link doesn't work.

A few suggested readings on the back of the syllabus Felisa handed out could be useful, specificially: Fisher and Costanza, 2005; Kousy and Schneider, 2003.

I think Felisa is basically suggesting that we summarize the information located at that website and maybe a few papers to present to the class, rather than a more research-oriented project.

Attached please find two articles which are recommended by Felisa (check e-mail).

And here is very nice Greenhouse Gas instruction on wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_house_gas

And this is Atmospheric circulation which affects the greenhouse gas dynamic from local region to global. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation\

The role of China. http://www.gerhard-k-heilig.com/cp/data/fig_co2-emissions_2.htm http://www.gerhard-k-heilig.com/cp/data/fig_co2-emissions_1.htm

Methane--big guy, small role. Slightly over half of the total emission is due to human activity. And the sinks are slightly less than resource. see the part of emission of metane. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane#Emissions_of_methane

Case study: Emission reductions in New Delhi (by CNG) : http://www.ekh.unep.org/?q=node/1737 (will gather more).

[edit] Meeting

• Time: 1-3pm, Fri., Step. 9th. 2007
• Location: Amitabh's office : Farris Engineering Center 335 (note: if you take the elevator to 3rd floor, turn left, the last door is the office's hall. The office is inside this hall.)

[edit] Current version of PPT

v1.1